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【先探投資週刊1880期】Tesla迎擊APPLE

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2016/04/29 | 第276期 | 訂閱/退訂 | 看歷史報份 | 每週五出刊 | 先探網站
   
 

封面故事 Tesla迎擊Apple
 
老謝專欄 台股520前的操作思維
 
活動看板 活動快訊
 

封面故事

Tesla迎擊Apple
【文/黃俊超】

醜媳婦總得見公婆,市場預期美商蘋果財報不佳,果不其然,可是股價依舊是大跌反應,甚至部分分析師對於今年iPhone銷售展望,悲觀預期將呈現史上首次年減,至於是否能就此利空出盡,還是未定之數,不過可以預見未來幾季將有可能出現頗為重大的調整甚至併購,蘋果重返榮耀需要時間與持續突破、創新。

而另一個市場的焦點,則是將於美國時間五月四日盤後公告財報的電動車廠Tesla。三月底,Tesla發表親民價格三.五萬美元的首款房車Model 3,且正式接受下單,短短三天的預訂數衝上二七.六萬輛,執行長馬斯克在推特上表示,這數量遠高於公司預期的兩倍以上,今年來股價自低點最高上漲逾九成。

蘋果弱勢拖累台灣電子股

雖然全球市值第一的蘋果公司,開始有漸漸從雲上往下掉的感覺,爆發的Tesla市值則衝上全球第三二八名,但是產品與所屬產業完全不相同,兩家公司之間也仍存在著極大差距,不過相同點都是本著改變讓人類能擁有更美好的生活創造商品,而之所以會將兩者放在一起比較,是因為牽動著眾多台廠供應鏈的股價轉折。

賈伯斯時代的蘋果,充滿創新的力道,每次推出的產品都能讓消費者有「WoW」的感覺,也延續到接棒的庫克早期時代,又加強管理、更重視數字,使得蘋果仍有向上成長的力道。市場很有趣,以前功能性手機做得越小越受到喜愛,然而智慧手機卻是放大、市場更大,iPhone 6系列銷售將蘋果推向歷史巔峰。

馬斯克是電影《鋼鐵人》的靈感來源,也被市場譽為最有機會超越賈伯斯的夢想實踐家,過去曾將創立的原型入口網站Zip2、PayPal等出售,而後試圖為世界帶來乾淨能源,包含電動車Tesla、太陽能SolarCity等,且成立了太空探索公司SpaceX,期待將人類勢力更進一步延伸至外太空領域。

遠在半個地球外的台灣,股市表現與這兩家公司有著相當程度的連結,當蘋果如日中天時,台灣上百家的相關概念股跟著吃香喝辣,然而近一年來卻開始出現轉折,除了技術、製程領先的全球晶圓代工龍頭台積電,表現依舊一枝獨秀之外,僅有石英元件廠的晶技,今年仍有雙位數的上漲幅度。

今年加權指數仍有小幅度的上漲,不過蘋果概念股表現卻是相對弱勢,也拖累電子股,尤其是機殼的可成與PCB的F─臻鼎,出現雙位數的跌幅,而以去年每股稅後純益計算本益比,包含鴻海、鴻準、可成、和碩、F─臻鼎與台郡等,本益比都已低於一○倍以下。

電子跨界拉升本益比

Tesla於二○○八年發表第一代電動小跑車Roadster,○九年發表第二代Model S電動房車,Model S曾於一三年被國際重量級汽車雜誌《Motor Trend》評選為年度風雲車,且被稱為是汽車史上最偉大的發明;而一二年推出二.五代Model X電動休旅車,今年三月三十一日發表第三代、也是最親民平價的電動車Model 3。【本文未完,本文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》1880期;訂閱先探投資週刊電子版

 

老謝專欄

台股520前的操作思維
【文/吳濟有】

台股在八八四○點至八四三六點已盤旋六周,外資期現貨偏多未退,但內資逐次退場觀望,量能遞減收縮,幾乎剩車電族群一支獨秀,輪跌氛圍漸逐次擴散,外資會反手殺低?

還是再硬拉一波誘多?內資又何時才會回流?

硬拉軋空需有持強訊號

浩鼎風暴迫使中小型業績或炒作股逐次下跌,OTC指數領先跌破六○日線,有降入一二五上下九點的下箱形盤軟味(九周KD值向下至三四及五五以下);而首季財報好股的PE大多已拉高到沒有追價吸引力了,反而是匯損問題、五月繳稅賣股期、五二○前兩岸變數、新政府團隊沒亮點、產業五窮六絕時序等壓力,皆是內資退場觀望的主因所在。

相對於外資對台股期現貨偏多而言,恐是反差已到極點了。外資今年來集中市場買超逾一七一一億元,在國安基金確定出場後,本土期多單依然保持四至五萬或以上口數的歷史高峰,五一八結算前的變化頗具漲跌強力主導性。要往上硬拉軋空,就得現貨擴大買超、大盤放量、新台幣匯率持穩在三二.五至三二元內持強等訊號來配合才行。

目前大盤九月KD值保持向上開口近十,有利維持箱形走勢,上限在下壓年線(十二月均線)及下壓兩年線間,即八千六百至八千九百點內反壓不輕(尤其上半年GDP還未大幅翻揚之際),下檔轉折軸以六月均線八千四百點附近為關卡,失守則會退向八千關及十年線下(上升支撐力)尋求再打底支撐。

反應在周線圖,九周KD值向下降至五七及七一附近,周量又約六周皆低於四千一百億元(攻堅量須四千五百億至五千五百億元),而五二周均線向下壓力難以扭轉(還有十三周皆扣抵八七六七點以上高峰區),中期大箱形八千四百點上下五百點盤整,等待基本面、政治面、信心面等進一步轉折變化的趨勢味濃。

而四月底前的Fed及日央行貨幣利率政策出爐後,是否會引來新一波股匯波動走向,是外資再持多或轉空關鍵;全世界連美國在內,皆不願見到自己貨幣過強或持強,競貶或負利率效應似已有限,只是金融市場會波動更加劇而已,對於美元指數、美股債走勢、歐日貨幣政策幾盡(剩直升機撒錢)、中國政經及股匯政策、油價走勢等,皆會是五至九月間(股市向來表現較差的時序)的外資動向指標變數所在。

若從市場心理反應及主權基金持股動向來看,國際油價(西德州原油WTI)的漲跌波動,仍最具牽動股市漲跌的力道,杜哈凍產會議預料失敗後,油價依然高檔盤旋待變,後市變化可注意:

一、在OPEC下次六月會議前是渾沌期,以沙國石油政策已走上政治化針對伊朗的態勢已不易改變,而伊朗日產四百萬桶(目前三二○萬桶)目標未達到前來看,凍產會議皆難以樂觀。

二、油價持彈的支撐力或可以中國每月原油進口量的成長(三月增長二一.六%)或衰退,來做為市場心理走向參考,也可觀察美頁岩油業者減產退場量,或活躍天然氣油井口數減少量,做為底區的參考。只是超低利率及金融市場支撐,美頁岩油業者規模體質逐次增強,生產成本也跟著往三○至二五美元/每桶水平壓低,競爭力跟著大提升;中東國家及俄羅斯則各在十美元及二○美元附近或以下,但有財政支出編列的預算壓力;巴西三五美元附近、奈國及委國各在二九及二八美元附近,但已有外匯存底流失、財政赤字走高、政局不安等普遍狀況,易成為油價再次窒息戰下的波臣。這意味著油價須等中國等經濟回穩再起,才有重回多頭循環的契機,否則尚處於供給大於需求的殺價循環期。

油價仍處殺價循環期

三、以技術面走勢來看,油價下半年走跌的慣性甚為彰顯,今年能否擺脫是首要觀察所在,而其五二周年線跌至四四美元附近,配合去年四三.五八彈至六二.五八美元來看,此關卡價之上及年線能否走平向上,是續彈力關鍵,否則仍走四○上下六美元左右的區間,一旦三四美元失守,則又會引來對沖基金的摜壓測底,連帶會引來主權基金再拋售全球績優股的賣壓(Apple為典型代表),更何況S&P 500指數約近三○%權重為能源類股,漲跌影響趨勢力甚鉅。【本文未完,本文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》1880期;訂閱先探投資週刊電子版

本期其它精彩當期文章延伸閱讀

◎封面故事:汽車電子化 圍繞ADAS公轉
◎特別企劃:中國互聯網進入四強爭霸?
◎中港直擊:上海迪士尼打響第一炮
◎國際趨勢:三菱汽車品牌亮紅燈
◎焦點議題:升息或加碼QE 美日按兵不動
◎重要資訊:上市櫃站穩季線以上個股

 

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